Amazon’s Fire Phone was launched dressed in July, following many conundrum videos and an spread-out promotion by chief executive Jeff Bezos, who showed rotten skin like its 3D-effect maps and multiple front-facing cameras.
But since so therefore, how many Amazon Fire Phones exhibit really been sold? How many are dressed in exercise?
In attendance were many motivating anomalies dressed in the launch of the Fire Phone. The $200 estimate tag in favor of a 32GB version on an AT&T contract – the same estimate range at the same time as the iPhone 5S before Samsung GS5 – was a flabbergast to individuals who idea with the purpose of the Kindle and Kindle Fire medication showed Amazon at the same time as a low-end disruptor, advertising hardware on cost and profiting on the content.
Amazon gave the Fire Phone pride of place on its US network put, and and had a deal to put up for sale through AT&T, the biggest US carrier - though reviews were lukewarm.
Amazon notably on no account gives sales numbers in favor of some of the campaign it sells, preferring to permit its monetary results prepare the conversation. Analysts can get paid estimates of how many campaign exhibit been sold, based on their in turn from sales channels and some guidance the company might yield. But it’s not at the same time as ultimate at the same time as, say, the smartphone sales with the purpose of Apple before BlackBerry include dressed in their monetary numbers. (They are pronto the no more than two companies which yield known factor morals in favor of device sales dressed in their monetary results; Apple goes farther by giving the revenue from individuals sales too.)
But we can exhibit a stab on estimating how many Fire Phones are dressed in exercise, based on data from Chitika, which runs an billboard net.
According to a circulate from Chitika, looking on movement on its billboard net dressed in the 20 days following the Fire Phone’s circulate, the Fire Phone accounted in favor of 0.02% of movement - although a additional precise personage, dressed in a new graph, shows it at the same time as around 0.015%.
OK - but how many phones might with the purpose of be alive?
Using data from ComScore, which provides monthly data on US smartphone users, we can comprehend close to a personage.
The nearly all current data from ComScore covers the three months to the finish of June 2014: On with the purpose of clock, in attendance were 173m smartphones dressed in exercise dressed in the US, it believed.
With the purpose of personage is rising by among 1m and 2m a month - so two months anon, by mid-August, after the Chitika data was collected, we might estimate with the purpose of in attendance are among 175m and 177m smartphones dressed in exercise dressed in the US.
We and exhibit to suppose with the purpose of Amazon’s Fire Phone spirit bare up on Chitika’s net at the same time as often at the same time as some other phone - so with the purpose of their network exercise is comparable (ie individual iPhone dressed in exercise spirit bare up on Chitika’s net at the same time as much at the same time as individual Samsung before LG before HTC before Amazon Fire phone). We’ll look harder on with the purpose of anon.
Based on the ComScore data:
• 0.015% of 175m = 26,250 Fire phones dressed in exercise
• 0.015% of 177m = 26,550 Fire phones dressed in exercise
Split the difference, and it’s reasonable take 26,400 at the same time as a median price.
But pardon? If Fire Phones “under-index” on Chitika’s order - with the purpose of is, they don’t bare up on its billboard networks at the same time as much at the same time as other campaign, as their users are (for example) all payments clock on Amazon retail things, quite than browsing the parts of the network with the purpose of Chitika goods ads in favor of?
To explain “under-indexing”, imagine in attendance are 100 owners of device A, and 100 owners of device B, and 100 of device C. If owners of A and C exercise their campaign online an equal amount of clock, but device B owners consume no more than partially their clock online, a order with the purpose of measures network impressions spirit present yourself with the purpose of in attendance are partially at the same time as many owners of device B. Individual would say with the purpose of device B “under-indexes”. Then again, if you exhibit equal statisticsics of A, B and C, but device A owners consume twice at the same time as much clock online at the same time as B before C, so therefore device A “over-indexes”.
A Chitika circulate dressed in grand seems to indicate, in favor of pattern, with the purpose of the iPhone over-indexes: It had 52.3% of Chitika network traffic, though iPhones are regarding 40% of smartphones dressed in exercise dressed in the US.
Robot campaign (including Fire Phone, which uses a forked version of Android) prepare under-index - though not much. The same Chitika survey with the purpose of shows the iPhone over-indexing gives Samsung a 22.8% network exercise share, and HTC a 3.1% share . Correction: Chitika’s US data dressed in grand shows Samsung with 26.4% of network handling, and HTC with 3.0% of network handling.
With the purpose of compares to ComScore’s data, which shows with the purpose of Samsung smartphones are 28.6% of the installed bottom, and HTC are 4.8%. (BlackBerry campaign under-index on Chitika, making up 0.5% of browsing, but having 2.4% of the installed bottom.)
On with the purpose of basis, you might argue with the purpose of if the Amazon Fire Phone under-indexes, it probably isn’t by much; you might multiply the integer by 25%, based on the be around of the Samsung and HTC numbers. With the purpose of takes you up to regarding 33,000 campaign.
Therefore even allowing in favor of margins of inaccuracy, it seems doubtful - based on Chitika’s data and the ComScore data - with the purpose of in attendance were additional than regarding 35,000 Fire Phones dressed in exercise following individuals 20 days.
Amazon had not responded to a apply for in favor of comment on the calculation by the clock of journal.
Lots of caveats apply: This is a calculation based on two non-congruent sets of samples, though both are huge sufficient to be alive robust.
So is 35,000 phones first-rate before bad? Bezos believed with the purpose of Amazon was dressed in it in favor of the extended run and with the purpose of it intends to be alive serene. Chitika notes with the purpose of “While Amazon certainly is looking to get paid the Fire Phone a run into, current conditions bare this being additional realistic at the same time as a long-term goal quite than a abruptly phrase individual.”
Observers felt with the purpose of Amazon had to comprehend into e-commerce through phones as it risked being disrupted itself at the same time as additional shopping - even the substantial sort - enthused to apps.
So far, though, the Fire Phone looks additional like a curiosity than a barnstormer.
Tags : Amazon
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